5
Bukele
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 63
Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Thistledown | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-11-06 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength70%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 29/04/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 17% | -0.69 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 01/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 20% | -0.59 |