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3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 81

Thistledown · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

11/10

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

85%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength3%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Thistledown 29/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 5f110y 11929/04C6C5 @ Thistledown 28/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 72 · 5f110y 119 · beat its mark28/05/2026 · OR 72 par28/05C5OR 72C5 @ Thistledown 02/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 77 · 5f110y 115 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 77 par2/09C5OR 77projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-05-28Thistledown?2nd2nd0
2026-04-29Thistledown?1st2nd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0428/052/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength64%

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/04/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
28/05/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
02/09/20262nd11/1094%80%-0.14