1
Counting On Clyde
3yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 72
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/8
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength47%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Thistledown | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/02/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 26/02/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 17/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |