Fact Not Fiction
5yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 84
Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
90%
Place Prob
63%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-09 | Thistledown | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-05-13 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2024-10-30 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2024-10-10 | Thistledown | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2024-09-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2024 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 22/06/2024 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/08/2024 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/09/2024 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 10/10/2024 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 30/10/2024 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 30% | -0.44 |
| 13/05/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 09/09/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 20% | -0.74 |