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7

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4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 75

Thistledown · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength97%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Thistledown 14/08/2025 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 76 · 1m2f 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/08/2025 · OR 76 par14/08C5OR 76C5 @ Thistledown 03/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 80 · 1m 115 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/09/2025 · OR 80 parC5 @ Thistledown 22/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 80 · 1m Slo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/09/2025 · OR 80 par22/09C5OR 80C5 @ Mahoning Valley 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 76 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 76 parC5 @ Thistledown 22/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 85 par22/04C5OR 85C5 @ Thistledown 22/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 81 · 1m 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 81 parC5 @ Thistledown 09/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 79 · 1m 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 79 par9/07C5OR 79C5 @ Thistledown 03/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 77 · 5f110y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Thistledown 27/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 85 · 1m Fas 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/08/2026 · OR 85 par27/08C5OR 85projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Thistledown?7th4th+3
2026-08-03Thistledown?4th1st+3
2026-07-09Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2026-06-22Thistledown?2nd-1th+3
2026-04-22Thistledown?5th2nd+3
2025-10-21Mahoning Valley?3rd0th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/0821/109/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength18%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/08/202512th14/126%0%-0.26
03/09/20254th2/189%25%-0.64
22/09/20251st11/486%100%+0.14
21/10/20253rd10/382%75%-0.07
22/04/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
22/06/20262nd11/486%86%+0.00
09/07/20265th5/174%20%-0.54
03/08/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
27/08/20267th12/137%14%-0.23