5

Harry

9yo Gelding · 11-7 · OR 107

Uttoxeter · Support Scropton Riding For The Disabled Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 70y

#7

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time winner in France who has posted solid efforts in both starts for new yard on these shores, latest when third of 8 in handicap hurdle at Worcester (2½m, good, 7/1) 11 days ago. Dropped 3 lb since and looks worth a crack at this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Auteuil 21/05/2023 · Pos 7th of 16 · OR - · 2m3f85y Sft 15421/05C?C0 @ Auteuil 10/06/2023 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR - · 2m1f196y Sft 158C4 @ Auteuil 12/11/2023 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 2m5f82y Hvy 14512/11C4C0 @ Cagnes-sur-Mer 06/12/2023 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m3f194y Hvy 153C0 @ Dieppe 01/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 2m2f195y Sft 1501/06C?C8 @ Dieppe 27/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 2m2f195y Sft 161C8 @ Clairefontaine 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 2m3f85y Sft 15815/07C84 @ Worcester 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 110 · 2m4f Gd 163 · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 110 par4 @ Worcester 04/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 110 · 2m4f Gd 158 · below its mark04/09/2026 · OR 110 par4/094OR 110projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Worcester43rd3rd0
2026-08-23Worcester44th4th0
2026-07-15Clairefontaine?1st5th4
2026-06-27Dieppe?1st5th4
2026-06-01Dieppe?7th7th0
2023-12-06Cagnes-sur-Mer?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/056/1215/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength68%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/05/20237th16/116%60%+0.44
10/06/20231st9/276%100%+0.24
12/11/20232nd16/116%93%+0.78
06/12/20235th2/189%43%-0.47
01/06/20267th10/147%0%-0.47
27/06/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
15/07/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
23/08/20264th16/116%57%+0.41
04/09/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08