1

Imperial Data

9yo Gelding · 12-0 · OR 114

Uttoxeter · Support Scropton Riding For The Disabled Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle · 2m 7f 70y

#8

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Dual winner last summer but nowhere near that form this term and is now tried in first-time visor.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move2
Strength43%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Hexham 10/05/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 120 · 2m4f28y Goo 168 · below its mark10/05/2025 · OR 120 par10/054OR 1202 @ Cartmel 26/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 120 · 3m1f83y Goo 153 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/05/2025 · OR 120 par4 @ Cartmel 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 120 · 2m6f31y Goo 168 · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 120 par29/064OR 1203 @ Cartmel 19/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR 119 · 2m6f31y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/07/2025 · OR 119 par2 @ Cartmel 25/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 124 · 3m1f83y Gd 153 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/08/2025 · OR 124 par25/082OR 1242 @ Perth 25/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 128 · 2m7f207y Goo 150 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 128 par3 @ Uttoxeter 05/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 128 · 2m7f70y Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/10/2025 · OR 128 par5/103OR 1282 @ Cartmel 25/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 125 · 3m1f83y Gd 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/05/2026 · OR 125 par2 @ Cartmel 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 118 · 3m1f83y Goo 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 118 par31/082OR 118projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Cartmel26th4th+2
2026-06-13Hexham3+1
2026-05-25Cartmel28th6th+2
2026-05-09Hexham3+1
2025-10-05Uttoxeter34th3rd+1
2025-09-25Perth23rd1st+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0519/075/1031/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength20%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/05/20254th6/168%70%+0.02
26/05/20255th8/158%64%+0.06
29/06/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
19/07/20251st9/153%100%+0.47
25/08/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
25/09/20253rd8/158%33%-0.25
05/10/20254th6/168%40%-0.28
25/05/20268th18/15%13%+0.07
31/08/20266th12/137%17%-0.20