6
Nightflyer
4yo Gelding · 11-2
Uttoxeter · Sun Racing Summer Jumps Championship Maiden Hurdle (GBB Race) · 2m 3f 207y
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Newton Abbot | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Worcester | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Aintree | 1 | 19th | 15th | +4 |
| 2026-03-26 | Warwick | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-05 | Haydock | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Catterick | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | 1st | 16/5 | 83% | 100% | +0.17 |
| 05/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 26/03/2026 | 4th | 22/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 11/04/2026 | 19th | 100/1 | 0% | 5% | +0.05 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 27/08/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |