11
Faded Fantasy
7yo Gelding · 11-3 · OR 99
Uttoxeter · Pip & Chris Emerald Wedding Anniversary Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Worcester | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Uttoxeter | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Newbury | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-12-10 | Hereford | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 80% | +0.25 |
| 22/09/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 11/10/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 10/12/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/01/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 04/06/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 13/06/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |