8
October Hill
6yo Mare · 11-6 · OR 102
Uttoxeter · Pip & Chris Emerald Wedding Anniversary Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Perth | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Worcester | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-20 | Ffos Las | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Exeter | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-19 | Ludlow | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength62%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/12/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 05/03/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 13% | -0.48 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 91% | +0.01 |
| 17/04/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |