Thiscouldbetheone
5yo Gelding · 11-6 · OR 102
Uttoxeter · Pip & Chris Emerald Wedding Anniversary Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#12
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 7.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Tramore | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-04-05 | Fairyhouse | ? | 12th | 17th | −4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Naas | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-04-29 | Punchestown | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-03-23 | Limerick | 1 | 5th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/2025 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 56% | +0.13 |
| 29/04/2025 | 9th | 11/1 | 42% | 53% | +0.11 |
| 09/01/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 05/04/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 54% | +0.28 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 23/08/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 20% | -0.41 |