5
Tommy Cullen
8yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 107
Uttoxeter · Pip & Chris Emerald Wedding Anniversary Handicap Hurdle · 2m 3f 207y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
35%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 4
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 4 | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-31 | Fakenham | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-04 | Warwick | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-02 | Huntingdon | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-03-27 | Southwell | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength47%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2024 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 23/01/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 19/02/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 02/03/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 27/03/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 02/11/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 04/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |