6
Axel Bleue
6yo Gelding · 10-11 · OR 113
Uttoxeter · Ready Freddie Go Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 10y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
26%
Rank
#1
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Worcester | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-01 | Worcester | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Worcester | 5 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-20 | Ffos Las | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Ffos Las | 4 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 8/15 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 83% | -0.08 |
| 21/04/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 20/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 06/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 01/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 23/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |