3

Bagheera Ginge

8yo Gelding · 11-11 · OR 127

Uttoxeter · Ready Freddie Go Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 10y

#5

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

At his best when able to dominate and he's been well placed to win 3 of his last 6 starts. However, he has risen significantly in the handicap and was struggling when falling 3 out at Stratford last time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength3%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Worcester 16/09/2024 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 119 · 2m4f Gd 161 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/09/2024 · OR 119 par16/092OR 1194 @ Warwick 05/11/2024 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 118 · 2m4f Gd 166 · below its mark05/11/2024 · OR 118 par4 @ Newton Abbot 28/05/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 115 · 2m5f122y Goo 168 · below its mark28/05/2025 · OR 115 par28/054OR 1154 @ Worcester 07/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 112 · 2m7f Goo 165 · below its mark07/07/2025 · OR 112 par4 @ Worcester 05/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 114 · 2m7f Goo 158 · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 114 par5/094OR 1143 @ Newton Abbot 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 113 · 3m1f170y Gd 156 · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 113 par4 @ Stratford 17/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 119 · 2m6f125y Goo 167 · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 119 par17/054OR 1193 @ Worcester 11/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 123 · 2m7f Goo 161 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 123 par4 @ Stratford 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 122 · 2m6f125y Goo 170 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 122 par29/064OR 122projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Stratford2+1
2026-06-29Stratford41st2nd1
2026-06-11Worcester35th5th0
2026-05-17Stratford41st2nd1
2025-10-19Sedgefield2+1
2025-09-29Newton Abbot31st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/097/0717/0529/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20245th11/486%20%-0.66
05/11/20247th11/142%14%-0.28
28/05/20257th14/126%0%-0.26
07/07/20252nd17/255%83%+0.28
05/09/20253rd7/163%67%+0.04
29/09/20251st9/488%100%+0.12
17/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
11/06/20265th17/255%43%-0.12
29/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37