4

Light N Strike

10yo Gelding · 11-9 · OR 125

Uttoxeter · Ready Freddie Go Handicap Chase (GBB Race) · 3m 10y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Scored at Newton Abbot early last season for Emma Lavelle before good third in valuable handicap at this course. Form rather patchy for Mickey Bowen since but rejoined former yard now and figures off a handy mark. Market check advised.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength38%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 30/03/2025 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 135 · 2m167y Goo 168 · below its mark30/03/2025 · OR 135 par30/033OR 1352 @ Chepstow 21/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 134 · 2m3f98y Goo 164 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/04/2025 · OR 134 par2 @ Newton Abbot 07/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 135 · 2m4f216y Goo 148 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2025 · OR 135 par7/052OR 1352 @ Uttoxeter 25/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 140 · 2m4f Goo 165 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/05/2025 · OR 140 par2 @ Uttoxeter 29/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR 139 · 3m2f13y Gd 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/06/2025 · OR 139 par29/062OR 1392 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2025 · Pos 14th of 18 · OR 137 · 3m1f Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2025 · OR 137 par2 @ Newton Abbot 06/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 135 · 2m4f216y Goo 159 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/05/2026 · OR 135 par6/052OR 1352 @ Perth 07/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 133 · 2m7f180y Gd 151 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/06/2026 · OR 133 par2 @ Cartmel 28/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 130 · 2m5f34y Goo 168 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2026 · OR 130 par28/062OR 130projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Cartmel26th5th+1
2026-06-07Perth26th5th+1
2026-05-06Newton Abbot24th3rd+1
2025-10-25Cheltenham214th13th+1
2025-10-11Chepstow2+1
2025-09-24Listowel1+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0325/056/0528/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 7
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength22%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/03/20253rd4/179%50%-0.29
21/04/20252nd7/163%88%+0.24
07/05/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
25/05/20253rd10/382%71%-0.11
29/06/20253rd11/142%86%+0.44
25/10/202514th66/10%24%+0.24
06/05/20264th6/168%50%-0.18
07/06/20266th8/158%44%-0.13
28/06/20266th12/137%0%-0.37