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Lady Dapple Rose

5yo Mare · 11-8 · OR 94

Uttoxeter · Sun Racing The Favourite Pullout Every Day Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 168y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed ability in 2 bumpers and bits and pieces of promise over hurdles for Harriet Dickin and was prominent in the betting ahead of short-lived stable debut (fell heavily first) at Fontwell in May. Remains interesting.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Cheltenham 17/04/2025 · Pos 6th of 18 · OR - · 2m179y Gd 148 · HIGHER CLASS17/0422 @ Aintree 26/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 2m209y GS 155 · HIGHER CLASS26/1023 @ Leicester 17/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 4 · OR - · 1m7f113y Sft 151 · HIGHER CLASS17/1133 @ Leicester 10/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m7f113y Hvy 151 · HIGHER CLASS10/1234 @ Exeter 09/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 2m161y Goo 155 · HIGHER CLASS9/0144 @ Chepstow 26/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 100 · 2m16y Goo 154 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/03/2026 · OR 100 par26/034OR 1005 @ Ludlow 22/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 95 · 2m5f55y Gd 166 · below its mark22/04/2026 · OR 95 par22/045OR 95projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24Fontwell50
2026-04-22Ludlow55th5th0
2026-03-26Chepstow43rd2nd+1
2026-01-09Exeter48th7th+1
2025-12-10Leicester36th4th+2
2025-11-17Leicester32nd0th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0410/1222/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 13
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/04/20256th250/10%71%+0.71
26/10/20255th22/10%43%+0.43
17/11/20252nd25/10%67%+0.67
10/12/20256th10/147%17%-0.31
09/01/20268th125/10%46%+0.46
26/03/20263rd10/147%67%+0.19
22/04/20265th18/15%60%+0.55