13
Northern Rose
6yo Mare · 10-10 · OR 82
Uttoxeter · Sun Racing The Favourite Pullout Every Day Handicap Hurdle · 1m 7f 168y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Bangor-on-Dee | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Stratford | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Uttoxeter | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Stratford | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Stratford | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 13
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength40%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 16/06/2026 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 27% | -0.58 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 20/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |