IvyArcIvyArc
6

Newton De Mongochy

3yo Gelding · 9-6

Vincennes · Prix Velleda - Monte · 1m 5f 92y

#9

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Argentan 06/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m2f151y Std 06/026C0 @ Caen 16/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR - · 1m4f39y Std 0C0 @ Caen 25/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR - · 1m4f39y Std 025/03C?C0 @ Caen 30/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR - · 1m4f39y Std 132C0 @ Caen 27/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 027/05C?C0 @ Caen 22/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f205y Std 04 @ Enghien 16/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 1m6f64y Std 016/074C0 @ Cabourg 07/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 1m5f120y Std 05 @ Cabourg 21/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR - · 1m2f41y Std 021/085projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Cabourg510th10th0
2026-08-07Cabourg?3rd3rd0
2026-07-16Enghien46th6th0
2026-06-29Vichy?0
2026-06-22Caen?7th7th0
2026-06-10Caen?0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0230/0316/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength64%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20263rd11/142%83%+0.41
16/03/20264th33/10%70%+0.70
25/03/20265th18/15%60%+0.55
30/03/20263rd18/15%82%+0.77
27/05/20268th40/10%30%+0.30
22/06/20267th50/10%45%+0.45
16/07/20266th50/10%29%+0.29
07/08/20263rd40/10%83%+0.83
21/08/202610th9/153%10%-0.43