9
Nustang Joly
3yo Gelding · 9-4
Vincennes · Prix Velleda - Monte · 1m 5f 92y
#12
Rank
Odds
22/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 6
Recent avg: C0.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Vincennes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | La Capelle | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Enghien | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Enghien | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Vincennes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Reims | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 27/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 26/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 12/08/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 25/08/2026 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 08/09/2026 | 2nd | 22/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |