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3

Due Date

6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · Cavani Fashion Forward Handicap · 6f 20y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Thrived during the latter half of 2025, winning 4 times. Tumbled in the weights after below-par efforts earlier this year and while he got back on track when second of 5 in Leicester handicap (6f) in July, he failed to build on it at Lingfield.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 67 · 6f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/12/2025 · OR 67 par4/125OR 675 @ Lingfield 14/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 67 · 6f1y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 66 · 6f20y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/03/2026 · OR 66 par3/035OR 665 @ Lingfield 25/03/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 64 · 6f1y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/03/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Wolverhampton 04/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f20y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 62 par4/045OR 626 @ Wolverhampton 17/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f20y Std 131 · below its mark17/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Kempton 06/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 57 · 6f Sta 132 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 57 par6/056OR 576 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 55 · 6f GF 133 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 56 par18/086OR 56projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Lingfield64th4th0
2026-07-04Leicester62nd2nd0
2026-05-06Kempton66th6th0
2026-04-17Wolverhampton67th7th0
2026-04-04Wolverhampton57th6th+1
2026-03-25Lingfield512th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1225/036/0518/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength89%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/12/20256th9/153%17%-0.36
14/02/20267th40/10%0%0.00
03/03/20268th50/10%13%+0.13
25/03/202612th80/10%0%0.00
04/04/20267th40/10%25%+0.25
17/04/20267th28/10%14%+0.14
06/05/20266th33/10%50%+0.50
04/07/20262nd9/153%75%+0.22
18/08/20264th10/147%63%+0.15