13
Em Jay Kay
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 52
Wolverhampton · Cavani Fashion Forward Handicap · 6f 20y
#5
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Windsor | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Newmarket | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-14 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Newcastle | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 30% | -0.46 |
| 13/01/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 17/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 15/02/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |
| 13/03/2026 | 9th | 28/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 28/06/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 14/07/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 14/08/2026 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |