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9

Lieutenant Sir

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · Cavani Fashion Forward Handicap · 6f 20y

#11

Rank

Odds

28/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won a 6f handicap at Ffos Las in June but has barely beaten a rival in 3 starts since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength39%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 29/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f21y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS29/1155 @ Wolverhampton 13/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 5f21y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Lingfield 17/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 5f6y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS17/1256 @ Brighton 09/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 54 · 5f215y Gd 134 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 54 · 6f Goo 130 · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 54 par29/066OR 545 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 54 · 5f143y GF 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Yarmouth 15/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 58 · 6f3y GF 129 · below its mark15/07/2026 · OR 58 par15/076OR 586 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 57 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 57 par20/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 10th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-20Lingfield67th7th0
2026-07-15Yarmouth66th6th0
2026-07-09Doncaster510th9th+1
2026-06-29Ffos Las61st1st0
2026-06-09Brighton63rd3rd0
2025-12-17Lingfield57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/119/0615/0720/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/11/20257th25/10%14%+0.14
13/12/20259th150/10%11%+0.11
17/12/20257th80/10%14%+0.14
09/06/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
29/06/20261st11/142%100%+0.58
09/07/202610th5/174%0%-0.74
15/07/20266th11/486%0%-0.86
20/08/20267th28/10%40%+0.40