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12

Mister Moet

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 54

Wolverhampton · Cavani Fashion Forward Handicap · 6f 20y

#6

Rank

Odds

18/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice at Lingfield during early part of 2026 but didn't look an easy ride when below form at that venue 2 weeks ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength51%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 58 · 5f Std 131 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 58 par12/036OR 585 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 59 · 5f6y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 59 par4 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 59 · 6f1y Std 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 59 par3/044OR 595 @ Doncaster 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 60 · 5f143y GF 141 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 15/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 60 · 4f217y GF 135 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 60 par15/076OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Brighton 05/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 58 · 5f215y Goo 132 · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 58 par5/086OR 586 @ Lingfield 20/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 57 · 6f1y Std 131 · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 56 · 6f1y Std 127 · below its mark01/09/2026 · OR 56 par1/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Lingfield67th7th0
2026-08-20Lingfield65th5th0
2026-08-05Brighton64th4th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-07-15Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-07-09Doncaster56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/039/075/081/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength9%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20262nd13/266%80%+0.14
27/03/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
03/04/202612th28/10%0%0.00
09/07/20266th16/116%44%+0.29
15/07/20262nd6/492%50%-0.42
21/07/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
05/08/20264th12/137%25%-0.12
20/08/20265th12/137%60%+0.23
01/09/20267th18/15%14%+0.09