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11

Oasis Cover

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 54

Wolverhampton · Cavani Fashion Forward Handicap · 6f 20y

#12

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★ Timeform

Commentary

Good second in handicap at Redcar (6f) in June on final outing for Ed Bethell but hasn't reproduced that form in 5 outings for Micky Hammond. Cheekpieces now applied.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 13/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 5f21y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS13/1256 @ Nottingham 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 60 · 5f8y Goo 130 · beat its mark09/05/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 60 · 5f Std 131 · below its mark19/05/2026 · OR 60 par19/056OR 606 @ Redcar 20/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 59 · 5f217y Gd 135 · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ripon 18/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 60 par18/076OR 605 @ Thirsk 24/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 60 · 6f Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/07/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Carlisle 11/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 58 · 6f195y Goo 130 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 58 par11/086OR 586 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 58 · 5f182y Sft 128 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 54 · 7f6y Goo 129 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 54 par8/096OR 54projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick611th11th0
2026-08-19Carlisle68th8th0
2026-08-11Carlisle65th5th0
2026-07-24Thirsk57th6th+1
2026-07-18Ripon68th8th0
2026-06-20Redcar62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/1220/0611/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/12/20256th20/10%44%+0.44
09/05/20263rd9/153%75%+0.22
19/05/202610th4/179%18%-0.61
20/06/20262nd10/147%89%+0.42
18/07/20268th22/10%30%+0.30
24/07/20267th80/10%14%+0.14
11/08/20265th50/10%33%+0.33
19/08/20268th25/10%0%0.00
08/09/202611th80/10%9%+0.09