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Trust Sergei

4yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 55

Wolverhampton · Cavani Fashion Forward Handicap · 6f 20y

#2

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

20%

Place Prob

32%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark for 2026 over C&D in June and back at that level returned to this trip when finding only one too good at Leicester a week ago. This is a lesser band of handicap so should be very competitive again if stall 12 doesn't prove to be a hindrance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength74%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 23/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 57 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark23/02/2026 · OR 57 par23/026OR 576 @ Wolverhampton 13/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 125 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Wolverhampton 23/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 55 · 6f20y Std 135 · beat its mark23/03/2026 · OR 55 par23/036OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 54 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 54 · 6f20y Std 134 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 54 par28/066OR 545 @ Chester 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 54 · 7f1y Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 56 · 6f20y Std 139 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 56 par30/076OR 565 @ Windsor 17/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 56 · 5f21y GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 56 par5 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 55 · 6f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 55 par8/095OR 55projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester52nd1st+1
2026-08-17Windsor54th3rd+1
2026-07-30Wolverhampton69th9th0
2026-07-10Chester53rd2nd+1
2026-06-28Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-05-05Wolverhampton62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/025/0530/078/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength78%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/02/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
13/03/20264th18/15%67%+0.61
23/03/20266th2/189%17%-0.73
05/05/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
28/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/07/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
30/07/20269th66/10%20%+0.20
17/08/20264th11/142%63%+0.20
08/09/20262nd17/255%90%+0.35