2
Blazing Gaden
5yo Gelding · 9-7
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 20y
#8
Rank
Odds
500/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Southwell | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Newton Abbot | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Stratford | 5 | −1 | ||
| 2026-04-22 | Taunton | 5 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-02 | Southwell | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength23%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2026 | 17th | 400/1 | 0% | 6% | +0.06 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 400/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 02/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/08/2026 | 9th | 500/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 500/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |