IvyArcIvyArc
11

Dusk Damsel

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 58

Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 20y

#2

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

75%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Twilight Son filly who ran up to her best away from handicap company when second of 6 in a Lingfield maiden (7f) 2 weeks ago. Drop back to 6f won't inconvenience her but looks vulnerable once more to less exposed sorts despite a good draw.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 7f36y Std 1263/0345 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m1y Std 1255 @ Lingfield 27/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 7f1y Std 12027/0356 @ Lingfield 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 59 · 6f1y Std 134 · beat its mark28/04/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 14th of 15 · OR 59 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark14/05/2026 · OR 59 par14/056OR 596 @ Wolverhampton 02/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 59 · 7f36y Std 135 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 57 · 7f36y Std 132 · below its mark21/07/2026 · OR 57 par21/076OR 576 @ Lingfield 17/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 54 · 5f6y Std 135 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 54 par4 @ Lingfield 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 52 · 7f1y Std 128 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 52 par1/094OR 52projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Lingfield42nd2nd0
2026-08-17Lingfield64th6th−2
2026-07-21Wolverhampton69th11th−2
2026-06-02Wolverhampton65th7th−2
2026-05-14Salisbury614th16th−2
2026-04-28Lingfield62nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0328/0421/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength31%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/03/20264th25/10%57%+0.57
20/03/20264th33/10%57%+0.57
27/03/20267th66/10%0%0.00
28/04/20262nd18/15%89%+0.84
14/05/202614th20/10%7%+0.07
02/06/20265th22/10%43%+0.43
21/07/20269th25/10%0%0.00
17/08/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
01/09/20262nd40/10%80%+0.80