4
Ennoble
3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 67
Wolverhampton · Race & Rest - Wolverhampton Holiday Inn Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 20y
#1
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
31%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C7.3
Today: 4
Class gap: -3.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Bellewstown | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Navan | ? | −4 | ||
| 2025-10-22 | Navan | ? | 6th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Cork | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2025-06-27 | Curragh | ? | 7th | 12th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength20%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 27/06/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 30/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 22/10/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 17% | -0.75 |
| 03/07/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 02/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |