IvyArcIvyArc
2

Rogue Exile

3yo Colt · 9-8 · OR 73

Wolverhampton · Download The Raceday Ready App Selling Handicap · 7f 36y

#6

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

By a sprinter/out of a stayer and didn't need to improve on his encouraging debut second when off the mark in a 5-runner Lingfield maiden (7f) last month. Not 100% when well held on handicap debut at Chepstow (7f) 4 weeks ago but no surprise to see him get back on track. Cheekpieces on 1st time.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Yarmouth 15/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 7f3y GF 13115/0755 @ Lingfield 01/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 7f Goo 1331/0855 @ Chepstow 18/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 73 · 7f16y GF 134 · below its mark18/08/2026 · OR 73 par18/085OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-18Chepstow57th7th0
2026-08-01Lingfield51st1st0
2026-07-15Yarmouth52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/071/0818/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/07/20262nd3/184%75%-0.09
01/08/20261st1/398%100%+0.02
18/08/20267th7/282%0%-0.82