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12

Captive Beauty

3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 56

Wolverhampton · Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 142y

#10

Rank

Odds

17/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Just failed to make a winning handicap debut here (7f) and backed that up at the second attempt when third at Yarmouth, shaping as if worth a try over this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.1
Today: 6
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Cork 10/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 6f Yie 12610/09C?C8 @ Gowran Park 08/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 7f180y Sft 1338/04C85 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 7f36y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS28/0656 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 56 · 7f36y Std 131 · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 56 par21/076OR 566 @ Lingfield 13/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 58 · 7f1y Std 129 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 58 par13/086OR 586 @ Yarmouth 30/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 57 · 7f3y GS 127 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 57 par30/086OR 57projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Yarmouth63rd3rd0
2026-08-13Lingfield68th8th0
2026-07-21Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-06-28Wolverhampton510th9th+1
2026-04-08Gowran Park?6th8th−2
2025-09-10Cork?8th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/098/0428/0621/0713/0830/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength98%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/09/20258th18/15%46%+0.41
08/04/20266th5/174%38%-0.36
28/06/202610th100/10%18%+0.18
21/07/20262nd16/116%89%+0.73
13/08/20268th18/15%36%+0.31
30/08/20263rd17/255%80%+0.25