3
Cy Twombly
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 56
Wolverhampton · Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 142y
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength51%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Leicester | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Southwell | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength11%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2024 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 30/01/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 9th | 200/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 18/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 21/07/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 26/08/2026 | 11th | 14/1 | 26% | 9% | -0.17 |
| 08/09/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |