13
Esplanade
3yo Filly · 9-4 · OR 56
Wolverhampton · Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 142y
#11
Rank
Odds
80/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼2
Strength78%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Ffos Las | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-07-31 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 11th | 9th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength15%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 150/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |