5
Manton Road
4yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 54
Wolverhampton · Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 142y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 29/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 16/06/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 06/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 92% | +0.55 |
| 13/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 26/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |