4
Mr Fustic
8yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 56
Wolverhampton · Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 142y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#3
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Lingfield | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Chelmsford City | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-02 | Lingfield | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength8%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 45% | +0.30 |
| 05/11/2025 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 54% | +0.49 |
| 20/11/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 02/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 55% | +0.07 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 30/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 73% | -0.01 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 31/08/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |