1
R P Mcmurphy
4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 58
Wolverhampton · Book Hotel And Conferencing At Wolverhampton Handicap · 1m 142y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
76%
Rank
#1
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-01-12 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-06 | Southwell | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 78% | -0.14 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 06/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 12/01/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 13/02/2026 | 8th | 9/5 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 07/07/2026 | 12th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 80% | +0.38 |
| 01/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |