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Eagle Day

6yo Gelding · 10-0 · OR 63

Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#1

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

98%

Place Prob

77%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ended a long losing run off 4 lb higher here (8.6f) in March (promoted) but record has been mixed since, below par at Bath latest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength68%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 17/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 69 · 1m142y Std 134 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/02/2026 · OR 69 par17/025OR 695 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m142y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Nottingham 18/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 66 · 1m75y Goo 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/04/2026 · OR 66 par18/045OR 665 @ Ffos Las 04/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m GS 126 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Wolverhampton 16/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 68 par16/065OR 685 @ Wolverhampton 07/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 67 · 1m142y Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Wolverhampton 21/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 66 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/07/2026 · OR 66 par21/075OR 664 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m2f70y Gd 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Bath 02/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 60 · 1m Goo 135 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 60 par2/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-02Bath66th6th0
2026-08-02Chester45th3rd+2
2026-07-21Wolverhampton54th3rd+1
2026-07-07Wolverhampton59th8th+1
2026-06-16Wolverhampton54th3rd+1
2026-06-04Ffos Las510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/024/0621/072/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/02/20269th10/147%11%-0.36
20/03/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
18/04/20268th16/116%13%-0.03
04/06/202610th12/137%10%-0.27
16/06/20264th12/137%70%+0.33
07/07/20269th7/163%27%-0.36
21/07/20264th25/10%75%+0.75
02/08/20265th40/10%50%+0.50
02/09/20266th9/276%50%-0.26