5
Norflondonforever
5yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 61
Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#10
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength50%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Southwell | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Windsor | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Haydock | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-04-15 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2025 | 3rd | 125/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 21/03/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 04/04/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 15/04/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 22/05/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 14/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 20/07/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 01/09/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |