4
Special Ghaiyyath
4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 62
Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#11
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength67%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 6 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.5
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Newmarket | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Leicester | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Windsor | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-07-03 | Sandown | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-12 | Lingfield | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 12
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength32%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/2025 | 10th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 30/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 27/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 03/07/2026 | 9th | 80/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 125/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 14/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |