6
Stipulation
5yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 60
Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap · 1m 1f 104y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Chepstow | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Beverley | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Nottingham | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Windsor | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-02 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/11/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 02/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 18/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 0% | -0.42 |
| 15/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 09/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |