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The Dark Baron

4yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 62

Wolverhampton · Cavani Style & Speed Handicap · 1m 1f 104y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner who added to his tally over 7f here in March. Generally held his form since and return to this trip looks a positive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 58 · 1m142y Std 131 · beat its mark27/12/2025 · OR 58 par27/126OR 586 @ Wolverhampton 16/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 59 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark16/01/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 02/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m1f104y Std 129 · beat its mark02/02/2026 · OR 59 par2/026OR 596 @ Wolverhampton 03/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 60 · 7f36y Std 130 · beat its mark03/03/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Bath 05/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 64 · 1m Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/04/2026 · OR 64 par5/045OR 645 @ Kempton 04/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 64 · 1m Sta 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Bath 26/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 64 · 1m Fm 137 · below its mark26/05/2026 · OR 64 par26/056OR 646 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 63 · 7f2y Std 133 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Wolverhampton 30/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 63 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark30/07/2026 · OR 63 par30/076OR 63projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-07-13Lingfield64th4th0
2026-05-26Bath64th4th0
2026-05-04Kempton56th5th+1
2026-04-05Bath53rd2nd+1
2026-03-03Wolverhampton61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/123/0326/0530/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/12/20252nd11/588%90%+0.02
16/01/20263rd10/382%71%-0.11
02/02/20262nd3/184%88%+0.03
03/03/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
05/04/20263rd8/158%80%+0.22
04/05/20266th10/382%29%-0.54
26/05/20264th10/382%0%-0.82
13/07/20264th9/153%67%+0.14
30/07/20264th9/276%70%-0.06