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5

Henery Hawk

7yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 58

Wolverhampton · Get Raceday Ready Handicap · 5f 21y

#1

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

52%

Place Prob

47%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time C&D winner who ran well under a 5-lb claimer when second of 8 in handicap (4/1) here 14 days ago. In the mix with a repeat.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 09/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 54 · 5f21y Std 135 · beat its mark09/04/2026 · OR 54 par9/046OR 546 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 54 · 5f21y Std 129 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 54 par5 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 60 · 5f GF 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 60 par20/055OR 605 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 60 · 5f Sta 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ayr 06/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR 59 · 6f Gd 138 · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 59 par6/076OR 596 @ Hamilton 16/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 59 · 5f7y Goo 138 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 58 · 5f Goo 136 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 58 par27/076OR 586 @ Ayr 10/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 57 · 6f Goo 135 · beat its mark10/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 01/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 56 · 5f21y Std 134 · beat its mark01/09/2026 · OR 56 par1/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-01Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-08-10Ayr67th7th0
2026-07-27Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-07-16Hamilton65th5th0
2026-07-06Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-06-26Newcastle510th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0426/0627/071/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/04/20266th9/153%38%-0.15
27/04/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
20/05/20263rd33/10%60%+0.60
26/06/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
06/07/20263rd33/10%83%+0.83
16/07/20265th16/116%43%+0.27
27/07/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
10/08/20267th12/137%50%+0.13
01/09/20262nd4/179%86%+0.07