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9

Saxophonic

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 50

Wolverhampton · Download The Racecourse App Raceday-Ready Handicap · 1m 5f 219y

#4

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Exposed as modest but he's eased to a basement mark and ran creditably once more in first-time cheekpieces (left off here) when fourth in 10-runner handicap at Ffos Las (1½m, good) 25 days ago, despite not being ideally placed. Well worth a try over this longer trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength49%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Haydock 27/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0945 @ Wolverhampton 08/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Wolverhampton 27/12/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m142y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS27/1246 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 59 · 1m2f42y Std 131 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 58 · 1m3f219y Sta 130 · below its mark30/04/2026 · OR 58 par30/046OR 586 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 56 · 1m3f99y GF 131 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 54 · 1m3f23y Std 135 · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 54 par23/076OR 546 @ Ffos Las 21/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 52 · 1m3f209y Gd 126 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 52 par21/086OR 52projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Ffos Las64th4th0
2026-07-23Southwell64th4th0
2026-05-23Windsor66th6th0
2026-04-30Kempton68th8th0
2026-02-04Newcastle63rd3rd0
2025-12-27Wolverhampton410th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/094/0223/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/09/20258th7/282%13%-0.69
08/12/20258th14/126%36%+0.10
27/12/202510th50/10%18%+0.18
04/02/20263rd11/271%75%+0.04
30/04/20268th4/179%13%-0.66
23/05/20266th16/116%62%+0.46
23/07/20264th9/276%67%-0.10
21/08/20264th9/276%67%-0.10