IvyArcIvyArc
8

Galba

3yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 72

Yarmouth · SSP Signs & Graphics Handicap · 7f 3y

#5

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Maiden who made a positive start for new stable when close second at Sandown and backed that up with a third at Haydock.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 6f110y Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/1044 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR - · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS14/0443 @ Leicester 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0535 @ Windsor 23/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 70 · 1m31y GF 135 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 70 par23/055OR 705 @ Sandown 12/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 7f Gd 129 · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 69 par12/065OR 695 @ Sandown 29/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 69 · 1m Goo 134 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 69 par29/075OR 695 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 72 · 6f212y Goo 136 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 72 par8/085OR 72projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-08Haydock53rd3rd0
2026-07-29Sandown52nd2nd0
2026-06-12Sandown53rd3rd0
2026-05-23Windsor56th6th0
2026-05-09Leicester33rd1st+2
2026-04-14Newmarket47th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1023/058/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +2.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/20253rd11/486%67%-0.19
14/04/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
09/05/20263rd28/10%71%+0.71
23/05/20266th8/158%44%-0.13
12/06/20263rd28/10%78%+0.78
29/07/20262nd11/893%80%-0.13
08/08/20263rd6/168%71%+0.03