4

Million Gold

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 73

Yarmouth · SSP Signs & Graphics Handicap · 7f 3y

#9

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Overcame obvious inexperience when winning novice at Kempton in December but was unable to land the odds at Newcastle the following month and failed to beat a rival in handicaps both starts this summer.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS3/1244 @ Newcastle 24/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 6f Std 131 · HIGHER CLASS24/0144 @ York 27/06/2026 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 77 · 6f Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 77 par27/064OR 774 @ Epsom Downs 31/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 75 · 7f3y GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark31/08/2026 · OR 75 par31/084OR 75projClass-projected finish: 8th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Epsom Downs46th5th+1
2026-06-27York414th13th+1
2026-01-24Newcastle43rd2nd+1
2025-12-03Kempton41st0th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1224/0127/0631/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength0%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 9th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20251st10/382%100%+0.18
24/01/20263rd4/696%60%-0.36
27/06/202614th28/10%0%0.00
31/08/20266th25/10%0%0.00