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Toastmaster

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 75

Yarmouth · SSP Signs & Graphics Handicap · 7f 3y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Consistent for the Crisfords and found some improvement for this yard, justifying strong favouritism when opening his account at Doncaster in June. Couldn't quite replicate that form at Newmarket and York since but he's back in calmer waters now after a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 4 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 24/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 74 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark24/11/2025 · OR 74 par24/115OR 745 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m1f104y Std 135 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Kempton 25/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 75 · 1m2f219y Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 75 par25/024OR 755 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 74 · 7f213y Goo 135 · below its mark24/04/2026 · OR 74 par4 @ York 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 20 · OR 73 · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 73 par23/054OR 734 @ Doncaster 05/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 73 · 7f6y GF 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 73 par4 @ Doncaster 20/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 73 · 7f6y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 73 par20/064OR 734 @ Newmarket 10/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 75 · 7f GF 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 75 · 7f Goo 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 75 par25/074OR 75projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-25York43rd2nd+1
2026-07-10Newmarket45th4th+1
2026-06-20Doncaster41st0th+1
2026-06-05Doncaster43rd2nd+1
2026-05-23York43rd2nd+1
2026-04-24Doncaster55th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1124/0420/0625/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/11/20252nd5/493%80%-0.13
30/01/20262nd2/189%83%-0.06
25/02/20263rd10/382%50%-0.32
24/04/20265th9/276%33%-0.43
23/05/20263rd33/10%89%+0.89
05/06/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
20/06/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
10/07/20265th6/492%60%-0.32
25/07/20263rd5/174%82%+0.08