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3

Channel Islands

2yo Gelding · 9-7

Yarmouth · British EBF Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f 3y

#2

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

30,000 gns yearling. Minzaal colt. Half-brother to smart 1m winner Create Belief. Dam, 9f winner, half-sister to smart winner up to 7.6f Make It Up. Left debut well behind when close second at Ffos Las but needs to come on again in what looks a stronger race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Salisbury 11/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f213y GF 13011/0734 @ Ffos Las 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f Gd 13327/084projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 2
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Ffos Las42nd4th−2
2026-07-11Salisbury35th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/0727/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/07/20265th50/10%20%+0.20
27/08/20262nd40/10%80%+0.80