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6

Due To Henry

5yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 76

Yarmouth · Thurlow Nunn Standen Groundcare Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 23y

#3

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has an awkward head carriage (would have won when narrowly denied on his Haydock reappearance if he had knuckled down a bit more) but returned to form when third of 10 in handicap at Chester in June. Similar form at Goodwood since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Sandown 13/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 87 · 1m1f209y Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/06/2025 · OR 87 par13/063OR 874 @ Chester 26/07/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 85 · 1m2f70y Goo 142 · below its mark26/07/2025 · OR 85 par2 @ Newbury 20/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 83 · 1m2f Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/09/2025 · OR 83 par20/092OR 834 @ Nottingham 08/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 80 · 1m2f50y GS 140 · below its mark08/10/2025 · OR 80 par4 @ Pontefract 20/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m2f5y Sft 133 · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 78 par20/104OR 784 @ Haydock 25/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m2f100y Goo 125 · beat its mark25/04/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Windsor 18/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 78 · 1m3f99y Goo 128 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 78 par18/054OR 783 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 77 · 1m2f70y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Goodwood 30/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m1f197y Sft 134 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 77 par30/084OR 77projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-30Goodwood45th5th0
2026-06-13Chester33rd2nd+1
2026-05-18Windsor45th5th0
2026-04-25Haydock42nd2nd0
2025-10-20Pontefract410th10th0
2025-10-08Nottingham413th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/068/1018/0530/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength73%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/06/20258th3/184%0%-0.84
26/07/20259th16/116%0%-0.16
20/09/20254th12/137%70%+0.33
08/10/202513th5/174%8%-0.66
20/10/202510th25/10%18%+0.18
25/04/20262nd10/147%86%+0.38
18/05/20265th10/382%33%-0.49
13/06/20263rd12/137%78%+0.41
30/08/20265th12/137%56%+0.19