IvyArcIvyArc
7

Echalar

4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 76

Yarmouth · Thurlow Nunn Standen Groundcare Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 23y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 7f Wolverhampton handicap in January for Jane Chapple-Hyam. Mixed bag for new connections but he ran out a ready winner from his easing mark at Doncaster (1¼m) 4 weeks ago. That opens up more options for him trip-wise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Southwell 20/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 80 · 7f14y Std 131 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 80 par20/024OR 804 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 1m Std 134 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 79 par2 @ Southwell 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 77 · 1m13y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 77 par7/042OR 774 @ Wolverhampton 27/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m1f104y Std 131 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 76 par2 @ Chester 08/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 76 · 1m2f70y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/05/2026 · OR 76 par8/052OR 765 @ Chepstow 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 75 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Chepstow 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 75 · 1m14y GF 135 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 75 par16/075OR 754 @ Chester 02/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 74 · 1m2f70y Gd 137 · beat its mark02/08/2026 · OR 74 par5 @ Doncaster 15/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 72 · 1m2f43y GF 130 · beat its mark15/08/2026 · OR 72 par15/085OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-15Doncaster51st2nd−1
2026-08-02Chester47th7th0
2026-07-16Chepstow54th5th−1
2026-06-27Chepstow53rd4th−1
2026-05-08Chester210th8th+2
2026-04-27Wolverhampton47th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/0227/0416/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength88%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/02/202611th33/10%9%+0.09
12/03/20266th10/147%17%-0.31
07/04/20266th40/10%58%+0.58
27/04/20267th12/137%25%-0.12
08/05/202610th80/10%10%+0.10
27/06/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
16/07/20264th6/168%40%-0.28
02/08/20267th28/10%25%+0.25
15/08/20261st9/153%100%+0.47