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Mythical Guest

6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 78

Yarmouth · Thurlow Nunn Standen Groundcare Handicap (GBBPlus Race) · 1m 2f 23y

#1

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

73%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is on a long losing run but was placed 6 times in 2025. Unable to put things to bed after hitting the front when third in a 10-runner race at Newmarket last month before being set a stiff task at Ascot (out of the weights). This more suitable back up in distance.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 03/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 82 · 1m Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/10/2025 · OR 82 par3/103OR 823 @ Newmarket 01/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 86 · 1m GS 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/11/2025 · OR 86 par2 @ Newmarket 14/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 86 par14/042OR 864 @ Yarmouth 10/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 84 · 1m3y Sft 134 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 84 par3 @ Newmarket 19/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 84 · 1m Goo 136 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 84 par19/063OR 844 @ Ascot 10/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 80 · 1m GF 136 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 80 par4 @ Newmarket 18/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 1m GF 136 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 80 par18/074OR 803 @ Newmarket 14/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 78 · 1m GF 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 78 par2 @ Ascot 04/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR 78 · 1m Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/09/2026 · OR 78 par4/092OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-04Ascot212th10th+2
2026-08-14Newmarket33rd2nd+1
2026-07-18Newmarket44th4th0
2026-07-10Ascot43rd3rd0
2026-06-19Newmarket39th8th+1
2026-06-10Yarmouth49th9th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1010/0618/074/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength16%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20252nd9/276%88%+0.11
01/11/20253rd9/153%80%+0.27
14/04/202610th8/158%0%-0.58
10/06/20269th10/147%20%-0.27
19/06/20269th33/10%33%+0.33
10/07/20263rd13/266%71%+0.06
18/07/20264th4/179%40%-0.39
14/08/20263rd16/116%78%+0.62
04/09/202612th40/10%8%+0.08