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3

Cherry Baker

3yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 88

Yarmouth · Goffs Two Million Series Fillies' Handicap · 6f 3y

#6

Rank

Odds

40/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Produced a pretty useful effort when bagging a Chester handicap in May and even better form when edged out late on back here later that month. Drop to 5f didn't seem ideal in class 2 handicap at Ascot a month later and this more suitable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Newmarket 09/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/0824 @ Sandown 12/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 1m Sft 1282 @ Newmarket 27/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 7f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS27/0922 @ Chelmsford City 04/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 76 · 1m Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/12/2025 · OR 76 par5 @ Southwell 18/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 74 · 6f16y Std 128 · beat its mark18/12/2025 · OR 74 par18/125OR 741 @ Newmarket 15/04/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 80 · 7f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/04/2026 · OR 80 par3 @ Chester 06/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 80 · 6f17y Gd 126 · beat its mark06/05/2026 · OR 80 par6/053OR 804 @ Chester 30/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 85 · 6f17y Gd 135 · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 85 par2 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 17th of 27 · OR 89 · 5f GF 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 89 par19/062OR 89projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Royal Ascot217th16th+1
2026-05-30Chester42nd3rd−1
2026-05-06Chester31st1st0
2026-04-15Newmarket112th9th+2
2025-12-18Southwell51st3rd−2
2025-12-04Chelmsford City25th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/084/126/0519/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/08/20256th20/10%0%0.00
12/09/20252nd50/10%83%+0.83
27/09/20255th18/15%56%+0.50
04/12/20255th8/158%50%-0.08
18/12/20251st9/276%100%+0.24
15/04/202612th125/10%0%0.00
06/05/20261st25/10%100%+1.00
30/05/20262nd4/179%90%+0.11
19/06/202617th40/10%38%+0.38